June 21, 2024

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Gold Prices Forecast: XAU/USD Sports Bullish Tone Amid Dollar Retreat

3 min read


  • Gold surges, reaching two-week high amid U.S. currency weakness.
  • XAU/USD investors’ experience renewed interest as U.S. dollar and Treasury yields decline.
  • Spotlight on Jackson Hole meeting for central bank interest rate insights.


U.S. Dollar and Treasury Retreat Bolster Gold Prices

Gold (XAU/USD) prices surged to a two-week high on Thursday, propelled by the U.S. dollar and Treasury yield’s retreat, renewing investor interest in the yellow metal. With eyes set on the Jackson Hole meeting, market participants eagerly anticipate interest rate cues from central bankers. Spot gold marked a commendable rise, reaching its highest level since Aug. 10.

Federal Reserve’s Annual Symposium in Focus

The financial realm is attentively observing the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium unfolding in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The limelight is firmly on Chair Jerome Powell’s impending speech, which could provide insights into future interest rate stances. Notably, gold’s allure diminishes with higher U.S. rates, considering it offers no interest returns.

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Global Economic Data Impact on Currency Dynamics

In the currency markets, the dollar faced a setback against Asian currencies, a reaction to the underwhelming global economic figures that cast doubts over interest rate trajectories, subsequently driving down U.S. yields. Stateside, business activity showed signs of stagnation in August, the weakest performance observed since February, further indicating a subdued demand in the extensive services sector.

European Central Bank’s Rate Hike and Economic Indicators

Wednesday witnessed traders reinforcing their belief in the European Central Bank stalling rate hikes next month. This stems from the stark shrinkage in business activities, signaling intensifying economic challenges. Furthermore, with 14 successive rate boosts by the Bank of England to counter inflation, Britain’s economic momentum seems to be dwindling, hinting at an impending recession.

Gold’s Bullish Outlook Amidst Rate Hike Uncertainties

Given the tepid PMI survey results, prospects of subsequent rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe appear dim. This scenario, overall, augments gold prices while applying a downward thrust to U.S. Treasury yields. With these multifaceted dynamics at play, the precious metal’s market exudes bullish undertones for the short term.

Technical Analysis

4-Hour Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold’s current price of 1921.86 shows a marginal increase from its previous 4-hour value of 1921.11, indicating a slight bullish inclination. When compared to the 200-4H moving average (1936.70), the current price is below, hinting at potential bearish sentiments. Conversely, the price is notably above the 50-4H moving average of 1900.76, suggesting some recent upward momentum. The 14-4H RSI stands at a high 71.31, marking an overbought territory, signaling that a pullback might be near.

The price is also comfortably nestled between the main support area (1893.07 to 1885.79) and the main resistance area (1946.99 to 1954.88). Considering all these factors, the market sentiment for Gold on the 4-hour chart leans bullish but with caution due to the high RSI value.

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